South Korea Housing Price Outlook (2026–2027) # 한국 집값 전망 (2026–2027)
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# South Korea Housing Price Outlook (2026–2027)
# 한국 집값 전망 (2026–2027)
## English
**Baseline (next 12–24 months)**
* The most defensible central case for **2026** is **low single-digit movement at the national level**, with **continued polarization**: the **Seoul Capital Area** (especially “core” Seoul) stays firmer, while many non-capital regions remain soft. A widely cited domestic institute outlook (reported in November 2025) expects **nationwide house prices +0.8% in 2026**, with the **capital area +2.0%** and **provinces −0.5%**. ([매일경제][1])
* As of mid-December **2025**, Seoul’s weekly apartment price index has been rising around **+0.18% w/w**, indicating momentum is still present going into 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Why prices can remain supported (upside forces)**
* **Supply tightness in core locations** (redevelopment/reconstruction pockets, transport hubs, school districts) keeps “scarcity pricing” intact, reinforcing intra-Seoul divergence. Recent reporting shows strong annual gains and sustained weekly increases in 2025, consistent with a “core-outperformance” regime. ([Asia Economy][3])
* **Past liquidity still working through the system**: the Bank of Korea has explicitly pointed to accumulated liquidity flowing into property markets as a driver of price upswings (rather than “fresh” money growth alone). ([Reuters][4])
* **Macro backdrop likely improves in 2026** (growth rebound vs. 2025), which can stabilize buyer confidence and household cashflows even if rates do not fall aggressively. ([IMF][5])
**Why gains are likely capped (downside/limiting forces)**
* **Mortgage and credit constraints** are structurally tighter in regulated areas. The Financial Services Commission’s June 27, 2025 package includes measures such as: restricting speculative borrowing (including limiting additional home purchases with mortgages in regulated zones), tightening maturities, controlling jeonse-linked loan structures, and **capping purchase mortgages at KRW 600 million in Seoul metro/speculation regulated zones**. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Monetary policy is constrained by FX and financial-stability risks.** Reuters reports the Bank of Korea held the policy rate at **2.50%** (Nov 27, 2025) and emphasized risks from a weak won and persistent Seoul housing price gains—conditions that can delay easier financial conditions. ([Reuters][7])
* **Household debt remains high** and housing-related project financing has been flagged as a financial stability concern—factors that tend to keep regulators cautious and keep credit standards conservative. ([OECD][8])
**Rental (jeonse) outlook**
* Multiple domestic outlooks point to **firmer jeonse in 2026** due to reduced new move-in supply and demand shifting from buying to renting; the same institute outlook cited above expects **nationwide jeonse +4.0% in 2026**. ([매일경제][1])
* If jeonse rises while purchase prices are capped by credit rules, the market can show a “rent-led” tightening where tenants feel pressure even if sale prices move only modestly.
**Regional map (practical expectation)**
* **Seoul “core”**: most resilient; moderate-to-strong gains remain plausible if supply stays tight and policy does not materially intensify. ([매일경제][2])
* **Seoul outer districts / 일부 경기 핵심지**: mixed; sensitive to loan rules and transaction volume. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Non-capital provinces**: more likely to be flat-to-down given weaker demographics and less scarcity premium, consistent with the −0.5% provincial baseline in the cited 2026 outlook. ([매일경제][1])
**What would change the path (key triggers)**
* **Downside shock**: material tightening of DSR/LTV or broader “speculation zone” expansion; a sharp drop in transaction volume; or renewed macro stress. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Upside surprise**: faster-than-expected easing in financial conditions (rates/credit spreads) while core supply remains constrained—though policymakers have been signaling caution due to stability risks. ([Reuters][7])
* **Medium-term anchor**: announced supply expansion plans (e.g., multi-year pipelines aimed at the capital region) can cap expectations, but delivery timing matters more than announcements. ([Korea Times][9])
---
## 한국어
**기본 시나리오(향후 12–24개월)**
* **2026년**은 전국 기준으로 **저(低)한 자릿수 변동**이 가장 합리적인 중심 전망이며, **지역 양극화(수도권 강세·비수도권 약세)**가 이어질 가능성이 큽니다. 2025년 11월 보도 기준 국내 연구기관 전망으로 **2026년 전국 집값 +0.8%**, **수도권 +2.0%**, **지방 −0.5%**가 제시된 바 있습니다. ([매일경제][1])
* **2025년 12월 중순**에도 서울 아파트 주간 지수는 **주간 +0.18% 내외**로 상승 흐름이 확인돼, 2026년 초까지 모멘텀이 이어질 여지가 있습니다. ([매일경제][2])
**상방 요인(버팀목)**
* **핵심지 공급 부족**(재건축·재개발 선호 단지, 역세권, 학군 등)으로 ‘희소성 프리미엄’이 유지되며 서울 내부에서도 격차가 커지는 구조입니다. 2025년 누적 상승 및 주간 상승 지속 보도는 ‘핵심지 우위’ 국면과 정합적입니다. ([Asia Economy][3])
* 한국은행은 부동산 가격 상승과 관련해 **새로 풀린 돈만이 아니라 과거에 누적된 유동성이 주택시장으로 유입**되는 점을 언급한 바 있습니다. ([Reuters][4])
* 2026년은 2025년 대비 성장 여건이 개선될 가능성이 있어(거시 회복), 심리·상환여력 측면에서 하방을 완충할 수 있습니다. ([IMF][5])
**상승 제한 요인(상단 캡)**
* 규제지역을 중심으로 **대출·신용 제약이 구조적으로 강화**돼 있습니다. 금융위원회(2025.6.27) 대책에는 투기수요 차단(규제지역 추가 주택 구입 관련 제한), 만기 제한, 전세자금 구조 제한, 그리고 **주택구입 목적 주담대 한도 6억원(수도권·투기규제지역)** 등이 포함돼 있습니다. ([금융위원회][6])
* 통화정책은 환율·금융안정 변수로 제약을 받습니다. Reuters 보도에 따르면 한국은행은 **기준금리 2.50%**를 유지(2025.11.27)하며 **원화 약세 및 서울 집값 상승에 따른 안정 리스크**를 강조했습니다. ([Reuters][7])
* **가계부채 수준이 높고**, 주택 관련 PF(프로젝트 파이낸싱)도 안정 이슈로 거론돼 감독당국이 보수적으로 접근할 유인이 큽니다. ([OECD][8])
**전세 전망**
* 매물(입주물량) 감소, 매수 지연에 따른 전세 수요 유입 등으로 **2026년 전세는 상대적으로 강세**가 예상된다는 전망이 있습니다. 앞서 언급한 기관 전망은 **전국 전세 +4.0%**를 제시했습니다. ([매일경제][1])
**지역별 그림**
* **서울 핵심지**: 가장 견조. 공급이 타이트하면 완만~중간 강도의 상승도 가능. ([매일경제][2])
* **서울 외곽/경기 일부**: 대출 규제·거래량 변화에 민감해 혼조 가능. ([금융위원회][6])
* **지방**: 수급·인구 구조 영향으로 보합~약세 가능성이 상대적으로 큼(−0.5% 베이스라인과 일치). ([매일경제][1])
**경로를 바꾸는 변수(트리거)**
* 하방: DSR/LTV 추가 강화, 규제지역 확대, 거래량 급감, 거시 충격. ([금융위원회][6])
* 상방: 금융여건이 예상보다 빨리 완화되면서 핵심지 공급 제약이 지속될 경우(다만 정책은 안정 리스크로 신중). ([Reuters][7])
* 중기 앵커: 수도권 중심 **공급 확대 로드맵**(예: 2030년까지 대규모 공급 목표)이 기대를 누를 수 있으나, 실제 입주 시점이 핵심입니다. ([Korea Times][9])
---
## 日本語
**ベースライン（今後12〜24カ月）**
* **2026年**は、全国平均では**小幅（低い一桁）の変動**にとどまり、**首都圏（特にソウル中心部）強含み／地方弱含み**という二極化が続く見通しが中心です。国内研究機関の見通し（2025年11月報道）では、**2026年の全国価格+0.8%**、**首都圏+2.0%**、**地方−0.5%**が示されています。 ([매일경제][1])
* **2025年12月中旬**時点でも、ソウルの週間上昇（約**+0.18% w/w**）が確認され、短期の上昇モメンタムは残っています。 ([매일경제][2])
**上振れ要因（支え）**
* 再開発・再建築、交通利便、学区など**「コア立地の供給制約」**が希少性を生み、コアが相対的に強い局面が続きやすい。 ([Asia Economy][3])
* 韓国銀行は、住宅価格上昇について**新規マネーだけでなく、過去に積み上がった流動性が住宅市場に流入**している点を指摘しています。 ([Reuters][4])
* 2026年はマクロ成長が持ち直す見込みで、家計のキャッシュフローや心理面の下支えになり得ます。 ([IMF][5])
**上昇を抑える要因（上限）**
* 規制地域を中心に**与信規制が強い**。金融委員会（2025/6/27）の対策には、投機需要抑制、返済期間の制約、特定のチョンセ（jeonse）融資スキーム抑制、そして**住宅購入目的の住宅ローン上限KRW6億（首都圏・投機規制地域）**などが含まれます。 ([금융위원회][6])
* 為替・金融安定の制約から、金融環境が急速に緩むとは限りません。Reutersによれば、韓国銀行は政策金利**2.50%**を維持（2025/11/27）し、ウォン安とソウル住宅価格上昇によるリスクを強調しています。 ([Reuters][7])
* **家計債務が高水準**で、住宅関連PFも安定性論点として意識されます。 ([OECD][8])
**チョンセ（jeonse）見通し**
* 入居物件の減少や購入見送りによる賃貸需要増で、**2026年のjeonseは相対的に上昇しやすい**とされ、同見通しでは**全国+4.0%**が示されています。 ([매일경제][1])
**地域別**
* **ソウル・コア**：最も底堅い。 ([매일경제][2])
* **ソウル周辺／京畿の一部**：規制と取引量に敏感でまちまち。 ([금융위원회][6])
* **地方**：フラット〜弱含みが相対的に起こりやすい。 ([매일경제][1])
---
## Français
**Scénario central (12–24 mois)**
* Pour **2026**, le scénario le plus robuste est une **variation faible (bas simple chiffre) au niveau national**, avec une **polarisation persistante** : **région capitale** plus ferme, **provinces** plus molles. Une prévision d’institut domestique relayée en **novembre 2025** évoque **+0,8%** au niveau national en 2026, **+2,0%** pour la zone capitale et **−0,5%** pour les provinces. ([매일경제][1])
* Mi-**décembre 2025**, l’indice hebdomadaire des appartements à Séoul progresse encore autour de **+0,18%** sur une semaine, signe d’un momentum entrant en 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Forces de soutien (hausse)**
* **Rareté dans les emplacements “prime”** (reconstruction/requalification, transport, écoles) : la prime de rareté maintient la résistance des zones centrales. ([Asia Economy][3])
* La Banque de Corée a indiqué que les tensions sur les prix immobiliers reflètent aussi l’**afflux de liquidité accumulée** vers le logement, et pas uniquement une création monétaire récente. ([Reuters][4])
* L’environnement macro devrait être **meilleur en 2026** (rebond de la croissance), ce qui peut stabiliser la confiance et la capacité de service de la dette. ([IMF][5])
**Freins (plafond)**
* **Contraintes de crédit** : les mesures du **27 juin 2025** (FSC) renforcent la gestion de la dette des ménages, restreignent certains comportements spéculatifs et fixent notamment un **plafond de KRW 600 millions** pour les prêts hypothécaires d’achat dans la zone capitale/zonages spéculatifs. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Politique monétaire prudente** : Reuters rapporte un maintien du taux directeur à **2,50%** (27 nov. 2025) dans un contexte de won faible et de risques de stabilité liés à l’immobilier à Séoul. ([Reuters][7])
* **Dette des ménages élevée** et préoccupations de stabilité (dont PF immobilier) : biais prudentiel durable. ([OECD][8])
**Marché locatif (jeonse)**
* Les anticipations pointent vers un **jeonse plus ferme en 2026** ; la même source évoque **+4,0%** au niveau national, via baisse des volumes d’emménagement et report de la demande depuis l’achat vers la location. ([매일경제][1])
---
## Español
**Escenario base (12–24 meses)**
* Para **2026**, el escenario más sólido es **movimiento nacional bajo (un dígito bajo)** con **polarización**: **área metropolitana de Seúl** más resistente y **provincias** más débiles. Un pronóstico de un instituto local citado en **noviembre de 2025** estima **+0,8%** nacional en 2026, **+2,0%** en el área capital y **−0,5%** en provincias. ([매일경제][1])
* A **mediados de diciembre de 2025**, el índice semanal de apartamentos en Seúl seguía subiendo cerca de **+0,18% semanal**, señal de inercia de corto plazo hacia 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Factores alcistas (soporte)**
* **Escasez en zonas “prime”** (reconstrucción, transporte, distritos escolares) mantiene una prima de escasez y favorece el “núcleo” de Seúl. ([Asia Economy][3])
* El Banco de Corea ha señalado que parte del repunte inmobiliario se explica por **liquidez acumulada** que se canaliza hacia vivienda, no solo por dinero “nuevo”. ([Reuters][4])
* Un **mejor entorno macro en 2026** puede sostener confianza y capacidad de pago. ([IMF][5])
**Factores que limitan (techo)**
* **Restricciones de crédito**: el paquete del **27 de junio de 2025** (FSC) endurece la gestión de deuda y, entre otros puntos, establece un **tope de KRW 600 millones** para hipotecas de compra en el área capital/zonas reguladas por especulación. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Política monetaria condicionada por FX y estabilidad**: Reuters reporta que el BOK mantuvo la tasa en **2,50%** (27 nov. 2025) con preocupación por won débil y riesgos por alzas persistentes en Seúl. ([Reuters][7])
* **Deuda de hogares elevada** y riesgos de estabilidad (incluida financiación PF ligada a vivienda) refuerzan un sesgo regulatorio prudente. ([OECD][8])
**Alquiler/jeonse**
* Se anticipa un **jeonse más firme en 2026**; la misma fuente proyecta **+4,0%** nacional por menor volumen de nuevas ocupaciones y traslado de demanda desde compra hacia alquiler. ([매일경제][1])
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-keeps-rates-steady-fx-risks-limit-easing-scope-2025-11-27/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-korea-says-excessive-liquidity-alone-not-behind-fx-property-market-2025-12-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/south-korea-tighten-household-borrowing-rules-second-half-2025-02-27/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
[1]: https://www.mk.co.kr/en/realestate/11459940 "It is predicted that house prices and jeonse prices nationwide will rise 0.8% and 4.0%, respectively.. - MK"
[2]: https://www.mk.co.kr/en/economy/11495441?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Apartment prices in Seoul have risen for 44 consecutive weeks ..."
[3]: https://cm.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2025121516374666348?utm_source=chatgpt.com "[Exclusive] Seoul Apartment Prices See Record Annual ..."
[4]: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-korea-says-excessive-liquidity-alone-not-behind-fx-property-market-2025-12-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Bank of Korea says excessive liquidity alone not behind FX, property market volatility"
[5]: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1korea2025003-source-pdf.pdf "Republic of Korea: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Korea; IMF Country Report No. 25/308; October 31, 2025"
[6]: https://www.fsc.go.kr/eng/pr010101/84828 "Press Releases - Financial Services Commission"
[7]: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-keeps-rates-steady-fx-risks-limit-easing-scope-2025-11-27/ "South Korea signals end to rate cuts as FX, price risks grow | Reuters"
[8]: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/korea-economic-snapshot.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Korea Economic Snapshot"
[9]: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/others/20250907/govt-to-support-construction-of-135-mil-new-homes-by-2030?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Gov't to support construction of 1.35 mil. new homes by 2030"
# 한국 집값 전망 (2026–2027)
## English
**Baseline (next 12–24 months)**
* The most defensible central case for **2026** is **low single-digit movement at the national level**, with **continued polarization**: the **Seoul Capital Area** (especially “core” Seoul) stays firmer, while many non-capital regions remain soft. A widely cited domestic institute outlook (reported in November 2025) expects **nationwide house prices +0.8% in 2026**, with the **capital area +2.0%** and **provinces −0.5%**. ([매일경제][1])
* As of mid-December **2025**, Seoul’s weekly apartment price index has been rising around **+0.18% w/w**, indicating momentum is still present going into 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Why prices can remain supported (upside forces)**
* **Supply tightness in core locations** (redevelopment/reconstruction pockets, transport hubs, school districts) keeps “scarcity pricing” intact, reinforcing intra-Seoul divergence. Recent reporting shows strong annual gains and sustained weekly increases in 2025, consistent with a “core-outperformance” regime. ([Asia Economy][3])
* **Past liquidity still working through the system**: the Bank of Korea has explicitly pointed to accumulated liquidity flowing into property markets as a driver of price upswings (rather than “fresh” money growth alone). ([Reuters][4])
* **Macro backdrop likely improves in 2026** (growth rebound vs. 2025), which can stabilize buyer confidence and household cashflows even if rates do not fall aggressively. ([IMF][5])
**Why gains are likely capped (downside/limiting forces)**
* **Mortgage and credit constraints** are structurally tighter in regulated areas. The Financial Services Commission’s June 27, 2025 package includes measures such as: restricting speculative borrowing (including limiting additional home purchases with mortgages in regulated zones), tightening maturities, controlling jeonse-linked loan structures, and **capping purchase mortgages at KRW 600 million in Seoul metro/speculation regulated zones**. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Monetary policy is constrained by FX and financial-stability risks.** Reuters reports the Bank of Korea held the policy rate at **2.50%** (Nov 27, 2025) and emphasized risks from a weak won and persistent Seoul housing price gains—conditions that can delay easier financial conditions. ([Reuters][7])
* **Household debt remains high** and housing-related project financing has been flagged as a financial stability concern—factors that tend to keep regulators cautious and keep credit standards conservative. ([OECD][8])
**Rental (jeonse) outlook**
* Multiple domestic outlooks point to **firmer jeonse in 2026** due to reduced new move-in supply and demand shifting from buying to renting; the same institute outlook cited above expects **nationwide jeonse +4.0% in 2026**. ([매일경제][1])
* If jeonse rises while purchase prices are capped by credit rules, the market can show a “rent-led” tightening where tenants feel pressure even if sale prices move only modestly.
**Regional map (practical expectation)**
* **Seoul “core”**: most resilient; moderate-to-strong gains remain plausible if supply stays tight and policy does not materially intensify. ([매일경제][2])
* **Seoul outer districts / 일부 경기 핵심지**: mixed; sensitive to loan rules and transaction volume. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Non-capital provinces**: more likely to be flat-to-down given weaker demographics and less scarcity premium, consistent with the −0.5% provincial baseline in the cited 2026 outlook. ([매일경제][1])
**What would change the path (key triggers)**
* **Downside shock**: material tightening of DSR/LTV or broader “speculation zone” expansion; a sharp drop in transaction volume; or renewed macro stress. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Upside surprise**: faster-than-expected easing in financial conditions (rates/credit spreads) while core supply remains constrained—though policymakers have been signaling caution due to stability risks. ([Reuters][7])
* **Medium-term anchor**: announced supply expansion plans (e.g., multi-year pipelines aimed at the capital region) can cap expectations, but delivery timing matters more than announcements. ([Korea Times][9])
---
## 한국어
**기본 시나리오(향후 12–24개월)**
* **2026년**은 전국 기준으로 **저(低)한 자릿수 변동**이 가장 합리적인 중심 전망이며, **지역 양극화(수도권 강세·비수도권 약세)**가 이어질 가능성이 큽니다. 2025년 11월 보도 기준 국내 연구기관 전망으로 **2026년 전국 집값 +0.8%**, **수도권 +2.0%**, **지방 −0.5%**가 제시된 바 있습니다. ([매일경제][1])
* **2025년 12월 중순**에도 서울 아파트 주간 지수는 **주간 +0.18% 내외**로 상승 흐름이 확인돼, 2026년 초까지 모멘텀이 이어질 여지가 있습니다. ([매일경제][2])
**상방 요인(버팀목)**
* **핵심지 공급 부족**(재건축·재개발 선호 단지, 역세권, 학군 등)으로 ‘희소성 프리미엄’이 유지되며 서울 내부에서도 격차가 커지는 구조입니다. 2025년 누적 상승 및 주간 상승 지속 보도는 ‘핵심지 우위’ 국면과 정합적입니다. ([Asia Economy][3])
* 한국은행은 부동산 가격 상승과 관련해 **새로 풀린 돈만이 아니라 과거에 누적된 유동성이 주택시장으로 유입**되는 점을 언급한 바 있습니다. ([Reuters][4])
* 2026년은 2025년 대비 성장 여건이 개선될 가능성이 있어(거시 회복), 심리·상환여력 측면에서 하방을 완충할 수 있습니다. ([IMF][5])
**상승 제한 요인(상단 캡)**
* 규제지역을 중심으로 **대출·신용 제약이 구조적으로 강화**돼 있습니다. 금융위원회(2025.6.27) 대책에는 투기수요 차단(규제지역 추가 주택 구입 관련 제한), 만기 제한, 전세자금 구조 제한, 그리고 **주택구입 목적 주담대 한도 6억원(수도권·투기규제지역)** 등이 포함돼 있습니다. ([금융위원회][6])
* 통화정책은 환율·금융안정 변수로 제약을 받습니다. Reuters 보도에 따르면 한국은행은 **기준금리 2.50%**를 유지(2025.11.27)하며 **원화 약세 및 서울 집값 상승에 따른 안정 리스크**를 강조했습니다. ([Reuters][7])
* **가계부채 수준이 높고**, 주택 관련 PF(프로젝트 파이낸싱)도 안정 이슈로 거론돼 감독당국이 보수적으로 접근할 유인이 큽니다. ([OECD][8])
**전세 전망**
* 매물(입주물량) 감소, 매수 지연에 따른 전세 수요 유입 등으로 **2026년 전세는 상대적으로 강세**가 예상된다는 전망이 있습니다. 앞서 언급한 기관 전망은 **전국 전세 +4.0%**를 제시했습니다. ([매일경제][1])
**지역별 그림**
* **서울 핵심지**: 가장 견조. 공급이 타이트하면 완만~중간 강도의 상승도 가능. ([매일경제][2])
* **서울 외곽/경기 일부**: 대출 규제·거래량 변화에 민감해 혼조 가능. ([금융위원회][6])
* **지방**: 수급·인구 구조 영향으로 보합~약세 가능성이 상대적으로 큼(−0.5% 베이스라인과 일치). ([매일경제][1])
**경로를 바꾸는 변수(트리거)**
* 하방: DSR/LTV 추가 강화, 규제지역 확대, 거래량 급감, 거시 충격. ([금융위원회][6])
* 상방: 금융여건이 예상보다 빨리 완화되면서 핵심지 공급 제약이 지속될 경우(다만 정책은 안정 리스크로 신중). ([Reuters][7])
* 중기 앵커: 수도권 중심 **공급 확대 로드맵**(예: 2030년까지 대규모 공급 목표)이 기대를 누를 수 있으나, 실제 입주 시점이 핵심입니다. ([Korea Times][9])
---
## 日本語
**ベースライン（今後12〜24カ月）**
* **2026年**は、全国平均では**小幅（低い一桁）の変動**にとどまり、**首都圏（特にソウル中心部）強含み／地方弱含み**という二極化が続く見通しが中心です。国内研究機関の見通し（2025年11月報道）では、**2026年の全国価格+0.8%**、**首都圏+2.0%**、**地方−0.5%**が示されています。 ([매일경제][1])
* **2025年12月中旬**時点でも、ソウルの週間上昇（約**+0.18% w/w**）が確認され、短期の上昇モメンタムは残っています。 ([매일경제][2])
**上振れ要因（支え）**
* 再開発・再建築、交通利便、学区など**「コア立地の供給制約」**が希少性を生み、コアが相対的に強い局面が続きやすい。 ([Asia Economy][3])
* 韓国銀行は、住宅価格上昇について**新規マネーだけでなく、過去に積み上がった流動性が住宅市場に流入**している点を指摘しています。 ([Reuters][4])
* 2026年はマクロ成長が持ち直す見込みで、家計のキャッシュフローや心理面の下支えになり得ます。 ([IMF][5])
**上昇を抑える要因（上限）**
* 規制地域を中心に**与信規制が強い**。金融委員会（2025/6/27）の対策には、投機需要抑制、返済期間の制約、特定のチョンセ（jeonse）融資スキーム抑制、そして**住宅購入目的の住宅ローン上限KRW6億（首都圏・投機規制地域）**などが含まれます。 ([금융위원회][6])
* 為替・金融安定の制約から、金融環境が急速に緩むとは限りません。Reutersによれば、韓国銀行は政策金利**2.50%**を維持（2025/11/27）し、ウォン安とソウル住宅価格上昇によるリスクを強調しています。 ([Reuters][7])
* **家計債務が高水準**で、住宅関連PFも安定性論点として意識されます。 ([OECD][8])
**チョンセ（jeonse）見通し**
* 入居物件の減少や購入見送りによる賃貸需要増で、**2026年のjeonseは相対的に上昇しやすい**とされ、同見通しでは**全国+4.0%**が示されています。 ([매일경제][1])
**地域別**
* **ソウル・コア**：最も底堅い。 ([매일경제][2])
* **ソウル周辺／京畿の一部**：規制と取引量に敏感でまちまち。 ([금융위원회][6])
* **地方**：フラット〜弱含みが相対的に起こりやすい。 ([매일경제][1])
---
## Français
**Scénario central (12–24 mois)**
* Pour **2026**, le scénario le plus robuste est une **variation faible (bas simple chiffre) au niveau national**, avec une **polarisation persistante** : **région capitale** plus ferme, **provinces** plus molles. Une prévision d’institut domestique relayée en **novembre 2025** évoque **+0,8%** au niveau national en 2026, **+2,0%** pour la zone capitale et **−0,5%** pour les provinces. ([매일경제][1])
* Mi-**décembre 2025**, l’indice hebdomadaire des appartements à Séoul progresse encore autour de **+0,18%** sur une semaine, signe d’un momentum entrant en 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Forces de soutien (hausse)**
* **Rareté dans les emplacements “prime”** (reconstruction/requalification, transport, écoles) : la prime de rareté maintient la résistance des zones centrales. ([Asia Economy][3])
* La Banque de Corée a indiqué que les tensions sur les prix immobiliers reflètent aussi l’**afflux de liquidité accumulée** vers le logement, et pas uniquement une création monétaire récente. ([Reuters][4])
* L’environnement macro devrait être **meilleur en 2026** (rebond de la croissance), ce qui peut stabiliser la confiance et la capacité de service de la dette. ([IMF][5])
**Freins (plafond)**
* **Contraintes de crédit** : les mesures du **27 juin 2025** (FSC) renforcent la gestion de la dette des ménages, restreignent certains comportements spéculatifs et fixent notamment un **plafond de KRW 600 millions** pour les prêts hypothécaires d’achat dans la zone capitale/zonages spéculatifs. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Politique monétaire prudente** : Reuters rapporte un maintien du taux directeur à **2,50%** (27 nov. 2025) dans un contexte de won faible et de risques de stabilité liés à l’immobilier à Séoul. ([Reuters][7])
* **Dette des ménages élevée** et préoccupations de stabilité (dont PF immobilier) : biais prudentiel durable. ([OECD][8])
**Marché locatif (jeonse)**
* Les anticipations pointent vers un **jeonse plus ferme en 2026** ; la même source évoque **+4,0%** au niveau national, via baisse des volumes d’emménagement et report de la demande depuis l’achat vers la location. ([매일경제][1])
---
## Español
**Escenario base (12–24 meses)**
* Para **2026**, el escenario más sólido es **movimiento nacional bajo (un dígito bajo)** con **polarización**: **área metropolitana de Seúl** más resistente y **provincias** más débiles. Un pronóstico de un instituto local citado en **noviembre de 2025** estima **+0,8%** nacional en 2026, **+2,0%** en el área capital y **−0,5%** en provincias. ([매일경제][1])
* A **mediados de diciembre de 2025**, el índice semanal de apartamentos en Seúl seguía subiendo cerca de **+0,18% semanal**, señal de inercia de corto plazo hacia 2026. ([매일경제][2])
**Factores alcistas (soporte)**
* **Escasez en zonas “prime”** (reconstrucción, transporte, distritos escolares) mantiene una prima de escasez y favorece el “núcleo” de Seúl. ([Asia Economy][3])
* El Banco de Corea ha señalado que parte del repunte inmobiliario se explica por **liquidez acumulada** que se canaliza hacia vivienda, no solo por dinero “nuevo”. ([Reuters][4])
* Un **mejor entorno macro en 2026** puede sostener confianza y capacidad de pago. ([IMF][5])
**Factores que limitan (techo)**
* **Restricciones de crédito**: el paquete del **27 de junio de 2025** (FSC) endurece la gestión de deuda y, entre otros puntos, establece un **tope de KRW 600 millones** para hipotecas de compra en el área capital/zonas reguladas por especulación. ([금융위원회][6])
* **Política monetaria condicionada por FX y estabilidad**: Reuters reporta que el BOK mantuvo la tasa en **2,50%** (27 nov. 2025) con preocupación por won débil y riesgos por alzas persistentes en Seúl. ([Reuters][7])
* **Deuda de hogares elevada** y riesgos de estabilidad (incluida financiación PF ligada a vivienda) refuerzan un sesgo regulatorio prudente. ([OECD][8])
**Alquiler/jeonse**
* Se anticipa un **jeonse más firme en 2026**; la misma fuente proyecta **+4,0%** nacional por menor volumen de nuevas ocupaciones y traslado de demanda desde compra hacia alquiler. ([매일경제][1])
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-keeps-rates-steady-fx-risks-limit-easing-scope-2025-11-27/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-korea-says-excessive-liquidity-alone-not-behind-fx-property-market-2025-12-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
- [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/south-korea-tighten-household-borrowing-rules-second-half-2025-02-27/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
[1]: https://www.mk.co.kr/en/realestate/11459940 "It is predicted that house prices and jeonse prices nationwide will rise 0.8% and 4.0%, respectively.. - MK"
[2]: https://www.mk.co.kr/en/economy/11495441?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Apartment prices in Seoul have risen for 44 consecutive weeks ..."
[3]: https://cm.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2025121516374666348?utm_source=chatgpt.com "[Exclusive] Seoul Apartment Prices See Record Annual ..."
[4]: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-korea-says-excessive-liquidity-alone-not-behind-fx-property-market-2025-12-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Bank of Korea says excessive liquidity alone not behind FX, property market volatility"
[5]: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1korea2025003-source-pdf.pdf "Republic of Korea: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Korea; IMF Country Report No. 25/308; October 31, 2025"
[6]: https://www.fsc.go.kr/eng/pr010101/84828 "Press Releases - Financial Services Commission"
[7]: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-keeps-rates-steady-fx-risks-limit-easing-scope-2025-11-27/ "South Korea signals end to rate cuts as FX, price risks grow | Reuters"
[8]: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/korea-economic-snapshot.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Korea Economic Snapshot"
[9]: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/others/20250907/govt-to-support-construction-of-135-mil-new-homes-by-2030?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Gov't to support construction of 1.35 mil. new homes by 2030"